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Bahrain - 11:48pm

Historical Background:
Bahrain is a small island kingdom located in the Persian Gulf. King Hamad al Khalifa is the latest in a dynastic line of kings who have ruled Bahrain for hundreds of years. Following the discovery of oil in the 1930s, the country quickly modernized and successfully diversified its economy following the oil boom of the 1970s. Bahrain officially gained its independence from Great Britain in 1971, and has maintained a US naval base on the island since the early 1990s. Upon assuming the throne in 1999, al Khalifa launched a series of reforms aimed at progressing women's rights, he also released political prisoners from his father's reign.

Recent Events:
Riding the wave of protests in the region, Bahrain's protesters are demanding more political and human rights. Protesters are alleging corruption on King al Khalifa's part, as his government is dominated by family members. Protests took a dramatic turn on February 17, when police and armed forces assaulted protesters in Bahrain's central square in a surprise overnight raid. The following days, protests turned deadly when government forces fired live rounds into crowds, killing several protesters. Al Khalifa has offered concessions to the protesters including a monetary stipend, which has been largely ignored. Al Khalifa has also appointed the Crown Prince to reach out to opposition groups in order to find a solution.


Looking Forward:
Bahrain's divisions run deep. A largely unrepresented Shia majority has been vying for political power for decades, including coup attempts in the 1990s. Shiites make up a vast majority of the protesters and, as the government has shown, will face violent opposition in their attempts to demonstrate against the government.

M.Co: "Bahrain's protests appear to be taking a dangerous and scary turn, given the government's willingness to use deadly force on protesters. Bahrain's security forces are dominated by pro-government Sunnis, as well as large numbers of foreigners, neither of whom are likely to step down. Do not expect security forces to move aside early like they did in Egypt. US interests are at stake here, with the US naval base on the island considered critical in maintaining Gulf security and countering Iranian influence. Expect protests to get bloodier before they calm down, but I cannot anticipate a victory for the protesters. Although many analysts consider Bahrain susceptible to violent uprisings, I believe that the government's forces are too strong and too determined to let the monarchy fall. Expect bloody protests to continue, and even evolve into violent clashes between armed militias and government forces. Unless the opposition can rally unprecedented numbers of Bahrainis, expect the end to come in some sort of compromise."

Recent Posts:
3/2/2011 - Manama Gripped by Pro- and Anti-Regime Protests
4/2/2011 - Bahrain Bans Opposition Newspaper