Following World War II and the liberation of Libya from Italian occupation, Libya was ruled by King Idris. Idris' reign lasted from 1951-1969, when a military coup led by Muammar al Gaddafi toppled the monarchy. Gaddafi installed a government system with influences from Arab nationalism, socialism, and Islamism. High oil revenues and strong military support allow Gaddafi to head one of the most repressive governments in the world, ranking 158/167 in EIU's Democracy Index. Gaddafi's Libya has long been at odds with the US and other Western governments over his support of revolutionary movements around the world, his involvement in terrorist activities, and his pursuit of WMDs. Libya's oil reserves rank among the highest on the African continent and will allow production at the current rate for over 60 years.
Recent Events:
Protests began gaining momentum in Libya during the second week in February, with demonstrators calling for more democracy, greater human rights, and the ouster of Muammar al Gaddafi. Gaddafi's government has responded to large-scale protests with deadly force on several occasions, with reports of several hundred protester deaths. The Libyan capital of Tripoli has largely avoided large protests thus far, but protests have steadily increased in numbers in other cities. The government has recently promised drastic concessions and has warned of possible civil war if protests do not halt.
Looking Forward:
Protesters in Libya face great risk in demonstrating against Gaddafi. Gaddafi enjoys substantial support among high ranking military officers, and he commands a very capable militia force. There have been numerous reports of soldiers abandoning posts and joining protests. The capital of Tripoli is likely to see increased demonstrations in the upcoming days and weeks, which will be Gaddafi's greatest direct threat. Expect the army to be deployed en mass to the capital and meet protesters with force. The situation in Libya is likely to get worse before it gets better.
M.Co: "The army holds the key to Libya's future. Gaddafi is sure to order deadly force on all large-scale protests, especially in Tripoli. The question is, how long will soldiers continue to follow orders and fire on protesters? I don't think the lower ranking soldiers will be willing to do so over a prolonged period of time. Government workers play a substantial role here, too. The public sector in Libya is huge and Gaddafi has offered incentives to government employees in order to keep them off of the streets. Gaddafi's government is vulnerable here, the countdown has started and the clock is ticking. I expect to see protests grow in Libya over the next week or two, eventually reaching Tripoli. Expect to see continuing clashes, and more Libyans are likely to be killed. Eventually, I think that soldiers will give up their posts, and join protesters. When this happens, Gaddafi's time as ruler will be short."
Recent Posts:
3/2/2011 - Libya Rebels Halt Gaddafi Attack
3/3/2011 - US, Europe Tighten Noose around Libya's Government
3/15/2011 - Libya Bombards Rebels, gets Closer to Stronghold
3/17/2011 - Libya to Halt Military Actions
3/20/2011 - US, Allies Strike at Targets in Libya
3/26/2011 - Libyan Rebels Recapture Key Town
3/30/2011 - Libyan Rebels seen at risk of Failure
3/31/2011 - Senior Libyan official resigns, new blow to regime
