WASHINGTON (AP) - Fresh battlefield setbacks by rebels seeking to oust Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi are hardening a U.S. view that the poorly equipped opposition is probably incapable of prevailing without decisive Western intervention — either an all-out U.S.-led military assault on regime forces or a decision to arm the rebels.
Gaddafi is reaching deeper into his military ranks to send reinforcements onto the battlefield, has adopted new, unconventional tactics to counter the effects of coalition airstrikes, and apparently is convinced he can retain power by gradually retaking a degree of control of eastern Libya, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Wednesday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence on the condition and capabilities of regime and rebel forces.
On Wednesday, rebels under heavy shelling pulled back further eastward from the oil port of Ras Lanouf. Gaddafi's forces were shelling Brega, another important oil city to the east and appeared poised to attempt to retake the town of Ajdabiya, just south of Benghazi.
Helping propel the Gaddafi forces eastward was a change in battlefield tactics, the senior U.S. intelligence official said. Having seen much of their armor pounded by Western airstrikes earlier, Gaddafi commanders left many tanks and other armor in hiding places in Sirte and advanced eastward instead with small convoys of sedans, minivans, SUVs and other civilian vehicles that the official called "battle wagons" armed with small rockets and other weaponry.
This made it harder for Western pilots to distinguish the Gaddafi troops as military formations and lightened the logistics load for the Gaddafi forces.
Gaddafi in recent days also has mobilized second-tier ground forces that U.S. officials believe are less capable and less trusted by Gaddafi, the official said. This appears to reflect the Libyan leader's determination to press his advantage while the Western powers are self-limited in their assistance to the rebels.
President Barack Obama has explicitly ruled out using American ground forces, but his administration and European governments participating in the U.N.-sanctioned mission in Libya have said they are considering providing arms to the rebels. Such a move would require Obama to step back from his pledge to avoid an open-ended commitment in Libya.
Similarly, a decision to fully coordinate Western air power with rebel ground movements would place Washington openly on the side of the rebels, whose goals and makeup are murky and whose chances of winning — even with more air support — are questionable.
The alternatives include sticking to the current approach, which was cast by Obama in a speech to the nation Monday as focused on protecting Libyan civilians from attacks by regime forces. That effort succeeded last week in stopping pro-Gadhafi forces from entering the de facto rebel capital of Benghazi in eastern Libya, but when the rebels this week advanced westward to the doorstep of Gadhafi's home town of Sirte, they were repelled and forced to retreat.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. government was still gaining a better understanding of the opposition, and that no decision had yet been made on providing arms or any other assistance to rebels fighting Gadhafi's troops.
"Our assessment will help define our actions as we go forward," he said Wednesday.
Analysis: "As Gaddafi rides another wave of momentum towards the rebel capital of Benghazi, the UN will again be called on to aid Libya's opposition. Having successfully established the no-fly zone, the US and her allies will need to clarify their level of support for Libyan rebels in the coming days. There is no easy choice here for participating nations, with possible solutions ranging from an Iraq-style prolonged no-fly zone, to active logistical and military support for the opposition."
Read the Full Article here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110330/ap_on_re_us/us_libya_rebel_strategy
Also: Obama Authorizes secret help for Libya Rebels (Reuters)
