Senior Libyan official Resigns, new blow to Regime

AJDABIYA, Libya (AP) - Opponents of Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi were knocked back by government troops for a third straight day Thursday but took heart in a sign that the embattled regime is cracking at the highest levels: the defection of the second top official in roughly 48 hours.

Ali Abdessalam Treki, a former foreign minister and U.N. General Assembly president, had been named to represent Libya at the United Nations after a wave of defections early in the uprising. But Treki, who is currently in Cairo, said in a statement posted on several opposition websites that he was not going to accept that job or any other. "We should not let our country fall into an unknown fate," he said. "It is our nation's right to live in freedom, democracy and a good life."

Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa flew to England from Tunisia on Wednesday and the British government said he had resigned. He is privy to all the inner workings of the regime, so his departure could open the door for some hard intelligence, though Britain refused to offer him immunity from prosecution.

Gaddafi issued a defiant statement after the departures, calling on the leaders of countries attacking his forces to resign and accusing them of being "affected by power madness."

Libyan officials, who initially denied Koussa's defection, said he had resigned because he was sick with diabetes and high blood pressure. Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said Koussa was given permission to go to Tunisia, but the regime was surprised to learn he had flown to London.

"I talked to many people and this is not a happy piece of news, but people are saying, 'So what? If someone wants to step down that's his decision,'" Ibrahim said.

Nations behind the campaign of international airstrikes that have hobbled Libya's military hailed Koussa's resignation as a sign of weakness in Gadhafi's more-than-41-year reign. 

Koussa "can help provide critical intelligence about Gaddafi's current state of mind and military plans," said Tommy Vietor, U.S. National Security Council spokesman. He added that his defection "demonstrates that the people around Gaddafi understand his regime is in disarray."

Analysis: "While the recent defections are welcome news to opposition and coalition forces, they mean very little in a practical sense. Unless these Libyan officials can provide useful intel or spark a wave of numerous high-level defections, this will not affect Col. Gaddafi or his ability to fight the rebels. Apart from that, it could just be opportunistic political maneuvering."

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Libyan Rebels seen at risk of Failure

WASHINGTON (AP) - Fresh battlefield setbacks by rebels seeking to oust Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi are hardening a U.S. view that the poorly equipped opposition is probably incapable of prevailing without decisive Western intervention — either an all-out U.S.-led military assault on regime forces or a decision to arm the rebels.

Gaddafi is reaching deeper into his military ranks to send reinforcements onto the battlefield, has adopted new, unconventional tactics to counter the effects of coalition airstrikes, and apparently is convinced he can retain power by gradually retaking a degree of control of eastern Libya, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Wednesday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence on the condition and capabilities of regime and rebel forces.

On Wednesday, rebels under heavy shelling pulled back further eastward from the oil port of Ras Lanouf. Gaddafi's forces were shelling Brega, another important oil city to the east and appeared poised to attempt to retake the town of Ajdabiya, just south of Benghazi.

Helping propel the Gaddafi forces eastward was a change in battlefield tactics, the senior U.S. intelligence official said. Having seen much of their armor pounded by Western airstrikes earlier, Gaddafi commanders left many tanks and other armor in hiding places in Sirte and advanced eastward instead with small convoys of sedans, minivans, SUVs and other civilian vehicles that the official called "battle wagons" armed with small rockets and other weaponry.

This made it harder for Western pilots to distinguish the Gaddafi troops as military formations and lightened the logistics load for the Gaddafi forces.

Gaddafi in recent days also has mobilized second-tier ground forces that U.S. officials believe are less capable and less trusted by Gaddafi, the official said. This appears to reflect the Libyan leader's determination to press his advantage while the Western powers are self-limited in their assistance to the rebels.

President Barack Obama has explicitly ruled out using American ground forces, but his administration and European governments participating in the U.N.-sanctioned mission in Libya have said they are considering providing arms to the rebels. Such a move would require Obama to step back from his pledge to avoid an open-ended commitment in Libya.

Similarly, a decision to fully coordinate Western air power with rebel ground movements would place Washington openly on the side of the rebels, whose goals and makeup are murky and whose chances of winning — even with more air support — are questionable.

The alternatives include sticking to the current approach, which was cast by Obama in a speech to the nation Monday as focused on protecting Libyan civilians from attacks by regime forces. That effort succeeded last week in stopping pro-Gadhafi forces from entering the de facto rebel capital of Benghazi in eastern Libya, but when the rebels this week advanced westward to the doorstep of Gadhafi's home town of Sirte, they were repelled and forced to retreat.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. government was still gaining a better understanding of the opposition, and that no decision had yet been made on providing arms or any other assistance to rebels fighting Gadhafi's troops.

"Our assessment will help define our actions as we go forward," he said Wednesday.

Analysis: "As Gaddafi rides another wave of momentum towards the rebel capital of Benghazi, the UN will again be called on to aid Libya's opposition. Having successfully established the no-fly zone, the US and her allies will need to clarify their level of support for Libyan rebels in the coming days. There is no easy choice here for participating nations, with possible solutions ranging from an Iraq-style prolonged no-fly zone, to active logistical and military support for the opposition."

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Also: Obama Authorizes secret help for Libya Rebels (Reuters)

World Powers keep up Pressure as Gaddafi Beats Back Rebels

TRIPOLI (AFP) - World powers vowed Tuesday to continue military action until Moammar Gaddafi stops his "murderous attacks" on Libyan civilians, as loud blasts rocked his stronghold in Tripoli.

At a meeting of more than 35 nations in London, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and British Prime Minister David Cameron said that allied air strikes would go on until the Libyan leader met UN demands for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, two loud explosions rocked the area close to Gaddafi's tightly-guarded residence, an AFP correspondent in the Libyan capital said.

France, a driving force behind the air campaign, was prepared to hold discussions with its allies over arming the rebels, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said after the three-hour London meeting. His Italian counterpart Franco Frattini told AFP that "A consensus has been reached. Participants at the meeting unanimously said that Gaddafi must leave the country."

Gaddafi's forces had earlier checked the westward progress of anti-regime rebels towards his hometown of Sirte, an advance which began when Britain, France and the United States started air strikes on March 19.

On Tuesday, the rebels retreated 40 kilometres (25 miles) from their frontline positions to Nofilia, 100 kilometres from Sirte, which is the next big target in their efforts to oust Gaddafi as they head west towards Tripoli.

His forces unleashed barrages of artillery fire, triggering a stampede of rebel fighters, many fleeing aboard their pickup trucks.

Analysis: "Col. Gaddafi continues to show his superior firepower and military personnel when it comes to head-on clashes with rebels. Without support from NATO airstrikes, rebel forces are at an extreme disadvantage against Gaddafi, and it appears that NATO will need to increase its support of rebel fighters if Gaddafi's exit is to be ensured."

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Libyan Rebels Recapture Key Town

AJDABIYA, Libya (AP) - Libyan rebels clinched their hold on the east and seized back a key city on Saturday after decisive international air strikes sent Moammar Gaddafi's forces into retreat, shedding their uniforms and ammunition as they fled.

Ajdabiya's initial loss to Gaddafi may have ultimately been what saved the rebels from imminent defeat, propelling the U.S. and its allies to swiftly pull together the air campaign now crippling Gaddafi's military.

In Ajdabiya, drivers honked in celebration and flew the tricolor rebel flag. Others in the city fired guns into the air and danced on burned-out tanks that littered the road.

Their hold on the east secure again, the rebels promised to resume their march westward that had been reversed by Gaddafi's overwhelming firepower. Rebel fighters already had pushed forward to the outskirts of the oil port of Brega and were hoping to retake the city on Sunday, opposition spokeswoman Iman Bughaigis said, citing rebel military commanders.

"Without the planes we couldn't have done this. Gaddafi's weapons are at a different level than ours," said Ahmed Faraj, 38, a rebel fighter from Ajdabiya. "With the help of the planes we are going to push onward to Tripoli, God willing."

The Gaddafi regime acknowledged the air strikes had forced its troops to retreat and accused international forces of choosing sides.

Air strikes Friday on the city's eastern and western gates forced Gaddafi's troops into hasty retreat. Inside a building that had served as their makeshift barracks and storage, hastily discarded uniforms were piled in the bathroom and books on Islamic and Greek history and fake pink flowers were scattered on the floor.

Saif Sadawi, a 20-year-old rebel fighter with a rocket-propelled grenade launcher in his hands, said the city's eastern gate fell late Friday and the western gate fell at dawn Saturday after air strikes on both locations.

The U.N. Security Council authorized the operation to protect Libyan civilians after Gaddafi launched attacks against anti-government protesters who demanded that he step down after 42 years in power. The air strikes have crippled Gaddafi's forces, but rebel advances have also foundered, and the two sides have been at stalemate in key cities.

Analysis: "While promising, news of these rebel advances should be taken with a grain of salt. The end to this conflict is not likely to come for some time. When it does come, a rebel victory will be due to Gaddafi's loss of support within his own forces, not the rebels overrunning loyalists in the heart of Tripoli. With that said, as his forces pull back towards the capital, they become easier and more lucrative targets for coalition air strikes. On the other hand, as the Colonel's forces move back, they are likely to hunker down in heavily populated areas that are less susceptible to attack from the air. This defense by loyalists could signal the beginning of a very different conflict, with plain-clothed militias battling for control of Libya's urban enclaves."

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US, Allies Strike at Targets in Libya

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. and British ships and submarines launched the first phase of a missile assault on Libyan air defenses Saturday and a senior American defense official said it was believed substantial damage was inflicted.

In the strikes, 112 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired at more than 20 coastal targets to clear the way for air patrols to ground Libya's air force. While U.S. defense officials cautioned that it was too early to fully gauge the impact of the onslaught, the official said that given the precision targeting of the Navy's cruise missiles, they felt that Libya's air defenses suffered a good deal of damage.

In announcing the mission during a visit to Brazil, President Barack Obama said he was reluctant to resort to force but was convinced it was necessary to save the lives of civilians. He reiterated that he would not send American ground troops to Libya.

"We cannot stand idly by when a tyrant tells his people there will be no mercy," he said in Brasilia.

It was clear the U.S. intended to limit its role in the Libya intervention, focusing first on disabling or otherwise silencing Libyan air defenses, and then leaving it to European and perhaps Arab countries to enforce a no-fly zone over the North African nation.

Gortney told reporters the cruise missile assault was the "leading edge" of a coalition campaign dubbed Operation Odyssey Dawn. Its aim: prevent Moammar Gadhafi's forces from inflicting more violence on civilians -- particularly in and around the rebel stronghold of Benghazi -- and degrading the Libyan military's ability to contest a no-fly zone.

A chief target of Saturday's cruise missile attack was Libya's SA-5 surface-to-air missiles, which are considered a moderate threat to some allied aircraft. Libya's overall air defenses are based on older Soviet technology but Gortney called them capable and a potential threat to allied aircraft.

Analysis: "The international community has backed up UN Resolution 1973 with military action. The current mission profile calls for allied forces to disable Gaddafi's air defense capabilities, allowing allied warplanes to fly unimpeded in enforcing the no-fly zone. This move itself is not a death sentence for Gaddafi's regime, but it does not look good for him. In my opinion, the international community and the allied nations spearheading this offensive are not about to pass UN 1973, only to let Gaddafi retake the country or concede to reforms. The only hope for Gaddafi seems to be some sort of ceasefire agreement where he keeps some degree of political power, but surrenders his armed forces or partial control thereof."

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Libya to Halt Military Actions

(BBC) - The Libyan government has announced an immediate ceasefire in its offensive against rebels who have seized large areas of the country. The announcement came as a coalition of Western and Arab nations prepared for air strikes against Libyan forces.

Before the ceasefire announcement, heavy fighting was continuing. Rebels said government forces had been bombarding the western city of Misrata. There are claims this has continued despite the ceasefire announcement.

Military action short of an occupation was sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council on Thursday evening. UN Security Council Resolution 1973 gave broad backing to taking military action against all threats to civilians, which could include bombing ground forces loyal to Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Libyan Foreign Minister Mussa Kussa said his country was obliged to accept the UN resolution and to observe the air exclusion zone that had been agreed.

The ceasefire announcement came only hours after Col Gaddafi had insisted that the Security Council had "no mandate" for such a resolution, "which we absolutely do not recognise". "This is not a war between two countries that permits the council to intervene," he said in an interview on Portuguese television.
 
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Libyan government would need to demonstrate it was implementing a ceasefire. "We are going to be not responsive or impressed by words, we would have to see actions on the ground and that is not yet at all clear," she said.

"We will continue to work with our partners in the international community to press Gaddafi to leave and to support the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people."

Analysis: "Gaddafi's decision to call a ceasefire may make headlines around the world, but in a practical sense it means very little. As a clear reaction to the passage of UN Resolution 1973, which calls for a military no-fly zone over Libya, Gaddafi's move shows considerable weakness but does not hinder him from further attacks on opposition forces. What remains to be seen is to what degree of commitment and force the international community will throw behind 1973. Expect to see fighting resume soon and the UN's commitment to be tested."

Read the Full Article here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12787739

Libya Bombards Rebels, gets Closer to Stronghold

TOBRUK, Libya (AP) - Moammar Gadhafi's forces overwhelmed rebels in the strategic eastern city of Ajdabiya, hammering them with airstrikes, missiles, tanks and artillery Tuesday in an assault that sent residents fleeing and appeared to open the way for an all-out government offensive on the opposition's main stronghold in the east, Benghazi.

In desperation, rebels sent up two antiquated warplanes that struck a government ship bombarding Ajdabiya from the Mediterranean. But as tanks rolled into the city from two directions and rockets relentlessly pounded houses and shops, the ragtag opposition fighters' defenses appeared to break down.

Only 10 days ago, the rebellion was poised to march on Tripoli, the capital, and had appeared capable of sweeping Gadhafi out after 41 years in power, but the regime's better armed and organized military has reversed the tide. Efforts led by France and Britain to create a no-fly zone to protect the rebels have gone nowhere, and some rebels lashed out at the West for failing to come to their aid.

"The world is sleeping," he said. "They (the West) drunk of Gadhafi's oil and now they won't stand against him. They didn't give us a no-fly zone."

Residents of the city of 140,000 streamed out, fleeing toward Benghazi, 140 miles (200 kilometers) northeast. But warplanes and artillery were striking roads in and out of Ajdabiya, several witnesses and fighters said. Some reported private cars had been hit, but the reports could not be independently confirmed. They spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation from Gadhafi's regime.

Ajdabiya, 480 miles (800 kilometers) southeast of Tripoli, is the gateway to the long stretch of eastern Libya that has been in the control of the opposition since early on in the month-long uprising. With its fall, regime forces would be able to bombard Benghazi, Libya's second largest city and the de facto capital of the opposition, by air, sea and land.

Europe and the United States, meanwhile, were tossing back and forth the question of whether to impose a no-fly zone that the opposition has pleaded for.

On Tuesday, top diplomats from some of the world's biggest powers deferred to the U.N. Security Council to take action against Libya, as France and Britain failed to win support for a no-fly zone in the face of German opposition and U.S. reluctance. France said the Group of Eight agreed that a new U.N. resolution should be adopted by week's end with measures to help Libyan rebels.

A U.N. resolution introduced Tuesday includes no-fly provisions. It also calls for increased enforcement of an arms embargo and freezing more Libyan assets, according to U.N. diplomats said who spoke on condition of anonymity because the text has not been released. One diplomat said the Security Council will be looking to see whether members of the Arab League, which is pressing for the no-fly zone, are ready to seriously participate in the establishment and operation of a zone.
Analysis: "Over the past week, Gadhafi has managed to swing the pendulum of momentum back in his favor. At the same time, the push by the international community for a military no-fly zone over Libya has slowed. Government forces have made significant gains in the meantime, taking back nearly all major cities in the western part of the country, while making significant advances towards Benghazi in the east. Rebel forces are high in numbers, but lack the arms, artillery, and air support to wage a long-term war against government forces. Unless the international community significantly steps up support for the rebels soon (openly or covertly), Gaddafi will continue gaining back populous areas.   "
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US, Europe Tighten Noose around Libya's Government

(Washington Post) - The United States and its European allies tightened their noose around Libya's besieged government Monday, positioning military assets for possible action in the Mediterranean as they launched humanitarian efforts to assist refugees and rebel forces that have seized the eastern part of the country.

Britain and the European Union announced new sanctions against Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, his family and his government. The U.S. Treasury announced that it has frozen $30 billion worth of Libyan assets in this country under an executive order President Obama issued Friday, the most ever blocked under such a program.

On the ground, rebels and forces loyal to Gaddafi appeared at least temporarily to be at a standoff, with neither side taking more territory. Gaddafi's air force bombed weapons depots, apparently to prevent the rebels from gaining access to them.

In Geneva, U.S. and European leaders focused on sending aid to rebels and refugees. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that $10 million in relief funds have been set aside by the U.S. Agency for International Development, and two teams of experts are being dispatched immediately to Libya's borders to assess the refugee crisis and organize the delivery of aid.

Although the administration has repeatedly demanded legal accountability for Gaddafi, Clinton hinted that the United States might be willing to accept a deal in which the Libyan leader would voluntarily agree to exile in a third country. She raised the possibility at a news conference at which she was asked whether Gaddafi might be permitted to seek refuge with Zimbabwe's leader, Robert Mugabe.

Although Clinton and several European leaders said imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya was under active consideration, other senior U.S. and European officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, emphasized that there had not yet been any significant political discussions of such action. It would be unlikely, they said, unless Gaddafi turned his air force directly against the Libyan people.

Other than the bombing of arms depots, "I don't think we've seen . . . indications they're bombing people," the senior administration official said. But reports on the ground "are disturbing enough to merit contingency planning, and the nature of the threats does indicate a potential for escalation," the official said. "We want to have options in place."

For the moment, the United States and its European allies are counting on the harsh financial and travel restrictions in place, along with the threat of international human rights prosecution, to prompt Libyan military and government officials still loyal to Gaddafi to reconsider their position.

Movement of two aircraft carriers that are in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf area was within the "range of possibilities," the Pentagon official said, but still under discussion. This official and others said that U.S. and NATO forces had sufficient resources in Italy and elsewhere in the Mediterranean to take a number of actions if necessary.

A U.S. destroyer passed through the Suez Canal on Sunday and took up position in the southwestern Mediterranean, another U.S. military official said. An amphibious assault ship, the USS Kearsarge, with helicopters aboard, was in the Red Sea and headed toward the canal. The USS Ponce, another amphibious assault vessel, was also moving toward the area, the official said.

"What we're trying to do is leverage all the different contacts and channels that we can," the official said. "This is a new set of actors. We're exploring not just the people we have telephone numbers for, but the business community that has experience working in eastern Libya and other nongovernmental organizations who have people on the ground" in an effort to "get a better ground truth." 

Analysis: "Gaddafi is under the international microscope at the moment. As long as he sticks to aerial bombings of weapons caches and other rebel resources, Libya will remain free from foreign intervention. If the Colonel decides to direct air strikes towards the Libyan people, expect the game to change in North Africa. The international community will be under great pressure to protect Libyans if this should happen."

Read the Full Article here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022806537_2.html?sid=ST2011022805422

Libya Rebels Halt Gaddafi Attack

BREGA, Libya (BBC) - Rebel forces have fought off an attempt by soldiers loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi to retake the eastern oil town of Brega.

Forces loyal to Gaddafi had moved into eastern areas for the first time since towns there fell to protesters two weeks ago. The BBC's John Simpson in Brega says it now seems clear of loyalist troops.

Earlier Col Gaddafi said on TV he would "fight until the last man and woman" and warned that thousands of Libyans would die if Western forces intervened. Our correspondent has been to Brega's seashore and university, where the heaviest fighting took place, and they appear entirely clear of pro-Gaddafi troops.

He says a senior rebel officer had suggested the Gaddafi troops might have run out of ammunition and been forced to withdraw. The excited rebels appeared very proud of what they had achieved, our correspondent says, and the feeling in the town is that Col Gaddafi's men do not necessarily have their hearts in the job.

A Libyan air force plane did recently drop one bomb nearby, he says, but the attempt by Col Gaddafi to move on the eastern rebel-held areas appears for now to have been repulsed and, although this is by no means a final victory, it is an important setback for the Libyan leader.

The government forces had taken an oil facility at Brega at dawn but rebels later said they had struck back. Rebel spokesman Mustafa Gheriani accused Col Gaddafi of "trying to create all kinds of psychological warfare to keep these cities on edge".

Medical sources in Brega told BBC Arabic that 14 people had been killed in the fighting.

Analysis: "Rebel forces are gaining momentum everyday in Libya. Every failed overnight raid emboldens, unifies, and solidifies opposition forces who now hold, or are defending most of Libya's major cities. Gaddafi's hold on power is slipping, leaving many analysts concerned over what actions the aging leader may take to keep his post. Tripoli will likely be the Colonel's last stand, but it remains unclear what state Libya's army will be in the future, as massive numbers of government soldiers are defecting."

Read the Full Article here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12626496