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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Yemen On the Brink of a Showdown

SANA'A, Yemen (TIME) - What began as a simmer in the Arab World's poorest and most capricious state has suddenly started to come to a boil. In Yemen's mountain capital of Sana'a, the threat of civil war hangs like a bad taste in the dusty air. Motley marches of pro- and anti-government protesters block the streets, and tens of thousands of armed tribesmen wait in murky rooms around the country for orders from their chiefs. The mood in the capital is tense.

Yemen's opposition, a loose coalition of parties from Nasserites to socialists to Islamic clerics, now has the ability to rally large numbers. And late Monday night, it quashed a last-ditch attempt by President Ali Abdullah Saleh to form a unity government. Gangs on motorcycles streamed through the streets, draped in red, white and black Yemeni flags, demanding that the President leave. There were fears that pro- and anti-government protesters could face off around the capital; a solitary military helicopter flew low over the capital as the regime very publicly flexed its muscles.

With the situation looking more and more desperate, Saleh offered on Monday to form a unity government with the opposition. The pitch included the formation of a coalition, an end to all demonstrations, the release of prisoners held without trial and the start of corruption investigations. Saleh's plan backfired. After publicly rebuffing the proposal, opposition spokesman Mohammed al-Qubati said, "Saleh has only two options: either to be a former President or a deposed President."

"Saleh does not have a lot of options left," says Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen analyst at Princeton University. "The problem is that he believes he can still act and negotiate from a position of strength, when in fact, the ground has shifted substantially under his feet." 

Power brokers around the country are starting to cast around for their places in a post-Saleh world. Islah's aging leader al-Zindani, popular in Yemen but labeled a terrorist by the U.S. Treasury Department, has already jumped on the bandwagon of leaders hoping to ditch the President. "No matter how long it takes, no matter how many lives, the regime will fall," the cleric shouted through crackling speakerphones to a crowd of about 10,000 antigovernment protesters on Tuesday, his beard bright orange with henna dye.

Analysis: "President Saleh's power base seems to be crumbling all around him. Saleh has quietly grown weak in the past 2 weeks, as the world's attention has been on Libya. Yemen's ragtag opposition is growing stronger by the day and, with the failure of recent talks, seems poised to topple the government. Expect to see a tipping point in the coming weeks, perhaps following increased protests or a major event in Libya."