Yemen On the Brink of a Showdown

SANA'A, Yemen (TIME) - What began as a simmer in the Arab World's poorest and most capricious state has suddenly started to come to a boil. In Yemen's mountain capital of Sana'a, the threat of civil war hangs like a bad taste in the dusty air. Motley marches of pro- and anti-government protesters block the streets, and tens of thousands of armed tribesmen wait in murky rooms around the country for orders from their chiefs. The mood in the capital is tense.

Yemen's opposition, a loose coalition of parties from Nasserites to socialists to Islamic clerics, now has the ability to rally large numbers. And late Monday night, it quashed a last-ditch attempt by President Ali Abdullah Saleh to form a unity government. Gangs on motorcycles streamed through the streets, draped in red, white and black Yemeni flags, demanding that the President leave. There were fears that pro- and anti-government protesters could face off around the capital; a solitary military helicopter flew low over the capital as the regime very publicly flexed its muscles.

With the situation looking more and more desperate, Saleh offered on Monday to form a unity government with the opposition. The pitch included the formation of a coalition, an end to all demonstrations, the release of prisoners held without trial and the start of corruption investigations. Saleh's plan backfired. After publicly rebuffing the proposal, opposition spokesman Mohammed al-Qubati said, "Saleh has only two options: either to be a former President or a deposed President."

"Saleh does not have a lot of options left," says Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen analyst at Princeton University. "The problem is that he believes he can still act and negotiate from a position of strength, when in fact, the ground has shifted substantially under his feet." 

Power brokers around the country are starting to cast around for their places in a post-Saleh world. Islah's aging leader al-Zindani, popular in Yemen but labeled a terrorist by the U.S. Treasury Department, has already jumped on the bandwagon of leaders hoping to ditch the President. "No matter how long it takes, no matter how many lives, the regime will fall," the cleric shouted through crackling speakerphones to a crowd of about 10,000 antigovernment protesters on Tuesday, his beard bright orange with henna dye.

Analysis: "President Saleh's power base seems to be crumbling all around him. Saleh has quietly grown weak in the past 2 weeks, as the world's attention has been on Libya. Yemen's ragtag opposition is growing stronger by the day and, with the failure of recent talks, seems poised to topple the government. Expect to see a tipping point in the coming weeks, perhaps following increased protests or a major event in Libya."

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Libya Rebels Halt Gaddafi Attack

BREGA, Libya (BBC) - Rebel forces have fought off an attempt by soldiers loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi to retake the eastern oil town of Brega.

Forces loyal to Gaddafi had moved into eastern areas for the first time since towns there fell to protesters two weeks ago. The BBC's John Simpson in Brega says it now seems clear of loyalist troops.

Earlier Col Gaddafi said on TV he would "fight until the last man and woman" and warned that thousands of Libyans would die if Western forces intervened. Our correspondent has been to Brega's seashore and university, where the heaviest fighting took place, and they appear entirely clear of pro-Gaddafi troops.

He says a senior rebel officer had suggested the Gaddafi troops might have run out of ammunition and been forced to withdraw. The excited rebels appeared very proud of what they had achieved, our correspondent says, and the feeling in the town is that Col Gaddafi's men do not necessarily have their hearts in the job.

A Libyan air force plane did recently drop one bomb nearby, he says, but the attempt by Col Gaddafi to move on the eastern rebel-held areas appears for now to have been repulsed and, although this is by no means a final victory, it is an important setback for the Libyan leader.

The government forces had taken an oil facility at Brega at dawn but rebels later said they had struck back. Rebel spokesman Mustafa Gheriani accused Col Gaddafi of "trying to create all kinds of psychological warfare to keep these cities on edge".

Medical sources in Brega told BBC Arabic that 14 people had been killed in the fighting.

Analysis: "Rebel forces are gaining momentum everyday in Libya. Every failed overnight raid emboldens, unifies, and solidifies opposition forces who now hold, or are defending most of Libya's major cities. Gaddafi's hold on power is slipping, leaving many analysts concerned over what actions the aging leader may take to keep his post. Tripoli will likely be the Colonel's last stand, but it remains unclear what state Libya's army will be in the future, as massive numbers of government soldiers are defecting."

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Manama Gripped by Pro- and Anti-Regime Protests

MANAMA, Bahrain (AFP) - Large crowds of pro-government Bahrainis rallied Wednesday in Manama, shortly after anti-regime protesters staged a big gathering, on the 17th day of protests rocking the Gulf kingdom.

Supporters of the Sunni ruling Al-Khalifa dynasty gathered outside Al-Fateh mosque in Manama, waving Bahraini flags and pledging support to King Hamad. State television put their number at 300,000 demonstrators, a figure that could not be independently verified.

Earlier, thousands of anti-regime protesters massed outside the interior ministry, in the largest anti-government protest this week. Protesters of all ages then marched to Pearl Square, the epicentre of a sit-in demanding that the ruling Al-Khalifa dynasty step down, chanting: "Down, down Al-Khalifa" and "No dialogue with the killers."

Seven protesters were shot dead by security forces in protests last month, four in a deadly police raid in the early hours of February 17 on demonstrators camped in the square, which has since been dubbed "Martyrs' Roundabout."

Carrying banners that read "230 years enough -- Al-Khalifa leave" and "No dialogue," thousands of demonstrators in two gender-segregated processions stopped at a makeshift shrine along the King Faisal Highway dedicated to Abdulrida Buhamid, who was killed on February 17 by police gunfire. "How can we expect security when the army shoots and kills the innocent?" demanded one woman who stopped to pray at the shrine.

The wave of popular rallies in the tiny Gulf kingdom has brought to the surface simmering discontent among Bahrain's Shiites, who are calling for the fall of the Sunni Al-Khalifa dynasty which has ruled the majority Shiite country for 200 years.

A mass rally outside the government headquarters in Manama is scheduled for Friday.

Analysis: "Bahrain's ruling family is still firmly in power in Manama, despite ongoing protests from the opposition. In the absence of dramatic action by one side, I don't expect a serious threat to the crown."

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